In line with my hypothesis that the war in Ukraine will escalate into Armageddon, Europe is considering its options as Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 18th July 2023.
For context: as the war caused grain shipping in the Black Sea to stop, on 22 July 2022 Russia, Turkey and Ukraine agreed to keep grain shipping safe in the Black Sea. This is vitally important. The region provides about 30% of the world’s wheat supplies, so delays and lack of security of shipments had sent food prices soaring. The agreement was due to expire on the 18th July 2023 if not renewed. Russia cited unfulfilled commitments from Europe regarding Russian grain exports, as reason to allow the agreement to expire.
Russia and Ukraine jointly account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies – Ukraine’s contribution is nearly 10%.
In 2019 Ukraine accounted for 16% of the world’s corn supplies and 42% of sunflower oil, according to UN data.
BBC, Is Russia exporting grain from Ukraine?, 8 June 20221
40% of the World Food Program’s (WEP) Wheat Supplies Come from Ukraine…Because the World Food Program, gets so much of its grain supplies from Ukraine, those dependent on WFP’s food assistance are among the hardest hit anywhere. Last year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner reports that more than 275 million people worldwide “are on the brink of starvation”—a new and tragic record. It states that there are “44 million in 38 countries at the ‘emergency’ phase of food insecurity…one step away from a declaration of famine.” People in South Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and elsewhere are at “serious risk” according to the UN agency2.
NATO denied Ukraine’s membership application in June 2023 until the ongoing war with Russia is concluded. Ostensibly, the reason given was to avoid triggering Article 5, and plunge NATO into immediate war with Russia. However, no red line has been articulated. The USA has called up reservists to put troops on the ground in Ukraine, and in lieu of NATO membership, many nations gave billions more in weapons, money and other supplies. But NATO cannot afford a defeated Ukraine, and reality dictates that if Russia is close to defeating Ukraine, NATO will likely go to war regardless of Ukraine membership.
Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has given NATO a reprieve. It provides a pretext of support for Ukraine based on food security for the world, rather than a NATO/Russia conflict. It also draws many African and Asian nations into the conflict. We can expect that more nations will be drawn to supporting Ukraine in the coming months., especially after the summer harvest.
It’s now Russia verses the world. China, a major beneficiary of Ukrainian grain, may put more pressure on Russia to seek a quick and peaceful end to the war.